Saturday 31 May 2025
The College of Cardinals is about to elect a new pope, and researchers have been working on a unique approach to predict who might take the throne. By analyzing the language used by each cardinal in public statements and interviews, they’ve created a system that can identify similarities and differences between their ideologies.
The team started by collecting a large dataset of texts from various sources, including official statements, news articles, and social media posts. They then employed a technique called sentence-embedding to convert these texts into numerical representations that could be processed by computers. This allowed them to calculate the similarity between different cardinals’ language styles and identify patterns in their beliefs.
The researchers also developed a model that can predict how each cardinal might vote based on their ideological alignment with other cardinals. They simulated multiple scenarios, each focusing on a different theme such as migration, poverty, or interfaith dialogue. The results showed that certain cardinals consistently emerged as strong contenders for the papacy, depending on which issue was emphasized.
One of the most interesting findings is that some cardinals are more likely to be elected pope if a specific issue is highlighted during the conclave. For example, Archbishop Zuppi from Bologna becomes a leading candidate when the theme is interfaith dialogue, while Archbishop Brislin from Johannesburg rises to prominence when the focus is on migration and poverty.
The model also revealed that some cardinals are more likely to be elected if they have strong connections to other influential figures in the Church. For instance, Cardinal Parolin, the former Secretary of State, consistently appears as a top contender across multiple scenarios.
While this approach has its limitations – it relies on publicly available information and doesn’t account for personal relationships or behind-the-scenes negotiations – it provides a unique perspective on the complex dynamics at play during a papal election. By analyzing the language used by each cardinal, researchers can gain insights into their ideological leanings and how they might interact with others in the conclave.
The study’s authors acknowledge that predicting a papal election is inherently uncertain, but their approach offers a fascinating glimpse into the inner workings of the College of Cardinals. As the world waits to see who will be elected as the next pope, researchers continue to refine their model and explore new ways to understand the intricate web of relationships within the Church.
In the coming days, we’ll likely see a flurry of speculation about which cardinal is most likely to take the throne.
Cite this article: “Predicting the Papacy: Researchers Use Language Analysis to Forecast the Next Pope”, The Science Archive, 2025.
College, Cardinals, Pope, Language, Ideology, Texts, Sentences, Embedding, Model, Conclave
