Saturday 15 March 2025
The article discusses a new approach to risk assessment in complex engineering designs, particularly those involving two-way causal-effect relations and time delays. The traditional methods of fault tree analysis (FTA) and failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) are limited in their ability to model these types of relationships, which can lead to inaccurate risk assessments.
To address this issue, researchers have developed a new method called token-FCM, which combines fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) with tokens. FCMs are a type of graphical model that can capture the complex relationships between variables in a system, while tokens allow for the representation of time delays and causal-effect relations.
The token-FCM approach involves modeling the system as a network of nodes and edges, where each node represents a variable or component, and each edge represents a causal relationship between two variables. Tokens are then used to model the time delays and causal-effect relationships between the nodes.
The researchers tested their method on a real-world example involving a diesel engine for a horizontal directional drilling machine. They found that the token-FCM approach was able to accurately capture the complex relationships between the different components of the system, including the time delays and causal-effect relations.
One of the key advantages of the token-FCM approach is its ability to handle both static and dynamic risk assessments. Traditional methods are often limited to static risk assessments, which do not take into account changes in the system over time. The token-FCM approach, on the other hand, can capture these changes by using tokens to model the time delays and causal-effect relationships.
The researchers also found that the token-FCM approach was able to identify key design risks and prioritize them based on their impact on the overall system. This is particularly useful in complex engineering designs where there are many potential failure modes and effects to consider.
In addition, the token-FCM approach can be used to assess the reliability of different components within a system, which is critical in ensuring the safe operation of complex systems.
The researchers believe that their method has the potential to revolutionize the way engineers approach risk assessment in complex engineering designs. By providing a more accurate and comprehensive understanding of the relationships between different components, the token-FCM approach can help engineers design safer and more reliable systems.
Overall, the token-FCM approach offers a powerful new tool for engineers looking to improve the reliability and safety of their designs.
Cite this article: “Enhancing Risk Assessment in Complex Engineering Designs with Token-FCM”, The Science Archive, 2025.
Risk Assessment, Complex Engineering Designs, Fuzzy Cognitive Maps, Tokens, Fault Tree Analysis, Failure Mode And Effects Analysis, Reliability, Safety, Dynamic Risk Assessments, Static Risk Assessments.
